“IT AIN’T gonna fly.” Those were the words of then-Gov. Gutierrez on returning from Hawaii and the Guam Draft Commonwealth Act hearing in October 1997. A prophetic observation as it turned out, because those of us who follow such things know what happened with the Act.

I suggest that the same phrase might well apply to the governor’s Omnibus Fiscal Reform Bill, currently under consideration – and under fire – at the Guam Legislature. Have you been watching the progress of that initiative? Have you formed any opinions about it, or how successful it will be? Does the current legislative oversight hearing circus and goat-rope provide any clues?

As noted earlier in this column, the governor’s scheme falls flat on its face should his attempted manipulation of the GovGuam Retirement Fund fail. All the rest of his proposed “cuts” in aggregate don’t constitute a drop in that 2013 budget shortfall, estimated variously – depending on who’s talking and the day of the week – at somewhere between $41 million and $171 million. I recently pegged it at about $100 million and believe that’s pretty close to the actual figure.

Several months ago I wrote here that regardless of what the governor may attempt to do to try to cut spending, reduce the deficit and pay off Guam’s staggering public debt, he’d face stiff opposition from the Legislature whether or not his plan is rational and reasonable. That seems to be panning out as predicted. Sen. B.J. Cruz, who leads the opposing cavalry with exhortations to get out there and collect those millions in delinquent taxes, blithely ignores the fact that the Legislature has consistently refused to fund the Department of Revenue and Taxation sufficiently to make that possible. Rather than offering workable solutions he becomes part of the problem.

Others, mostly Democrats, never miss an opportunity to criticize and oppose any attempt to cut expenses. Sen. Pangelinan nit-picks to an excruciating extent any move toward cost reduction as do Sens. Won Pat, Guthertz and Respicio. Like Cruz, none of them have voiced meaningful alternative ways to bring GovGuam out of its suicidal financial nosedive and so they, too, are part of the problem.

We saw last week what happens when responsible cost-cutting measures are suggested, as with what could have been reasonable reductions in Fire Department personnel costs. The governor backed down when democratic senators attacked his plan, attempting to save some face by ostensibly adopting an alternative funding source that may or may not be valid. Similar attacks are happening regarding annual leave cash-out, maternity and paternity leave and similar policies. Any attempt to align overly-generous GovGuam policy with the national norm – generosity made possible only because the federal government funds nearly every GovGuam expense except payroll and benefits – raises plaintive cries of discrimination and unfair treatment. And so it goes.

What’s the eventual outcome to be? As noted earlier, it looks like the governor’s cost-cutting schemes will be stifled at every turn by those who play upon the GovGuam workforce attachment – and that of their relatives – to the cradle-to-grave job protection sacred cow. The governor’s initiative will likely fail miserably and we will, indeed, see layoffs – perhaps not too long after the November election – and eventual tax increases, the governor’s vehement denials notwithstanding. It will all happen as the usual suspects hold press conferences and oversight hearings that yield nothing of substance and point fingers at each other, like always.

And I’ll collect on a wager involving a steak dinner.