WE ARE just a week away from the general elections and the following is a basic pre-election set of points heading into the final stretch. This has been a fairly low energy sort of election. Other than the public auditor concern around the primary, there weren’t a lot of dynamic things going on.

In the last week, the Legislature quickly passed the abortion bill. This was a point of focused election based pressure. Rather than languish on it or pigeonhole it, they passed it. The danger of social engineering is the often overlooked "law of unintended consequences." The ironic point about this extended consent bill is that it actually might increase the number of abortions on Guam, not decrease them. Dr. Thomas Shieh, a licensed OB-GYN who does not perform abortions, and a specialist on this topic, has appropriately discussed how this bill may actually increase the rate of abortions from a medical standpoint.

There is a social side to this issue that has been under-discussed. Guam is literally crawling with babies. We have practically more babies here as a proportion of population than any other U.S. jurisdiction. At one point we were nearly two and half times the national average. We also have many teen mothers having babies at very young ages. This bill prompted a very open discussion that created a social cost-benefit effect. This then can translate into abortion becoming an option because the law requires the options to be openly discussed.

Also in the last week the gambling initiative began to get discussed. This has been a sort of stealth campaign that has had low energy. Last week I attended a speech by Jackie Marati opposing the initiative. She made a number of good points. The ironic point about this subject is that it may be bingo players themselves who end up being instrumental in turning this item down. The reason again appears to be social. This gambling bill produces the same behavior as a Walmart coming into a town with a small shop on every other corner. Many of these bingo players at the small non-profit bingo venues form a social unit of collegial friends. Most don’t go to bingo to get rich, it is a strongly social affair. From a political standpoint, if these non-profit bingo players feel this big for-profit bingo venture will spoil their local village game, they will oppose it. The old Middle Eastern saying, “The enemy of my enemy is also my friend,” applies. The irony is that the grandma gamblers and the anti-gambling groups have aligned.

As I mentioned last week, the Guam Legislature is often controlled by one political party and the executive branch is controlled by the other. There are a number of reasons for this that might be worth mentioning. First, the executive branch becomes a talent magnet and the pool of potential in-party candidates is reduced. Second, candidates for governor and lieutenant governor often spring from the Legislature. In a truly competitive election, potentially only two members from the party might try to return to the Legislature while up to four from non-winning sides might try to return. Third, incumbent senators are full-time politicians and thus can spend a lot of face time with the public. Non-incumbents actually have to work for a living and are thus at a disadvantage. Fourth, executive branch controlling party members may be less competitive than the other branch because they have a potential job on which to fall back.

In this coming election, there are 15 virtual incumbents running. Ten are on the Democrat side; five are on the Republican side. It should be fun to watch!