OFF-YEAR elections are very different from on-year elections.
The governor’s races always inject a lot of energy into elections and off-year elections are just not the same. Part of this comes from the fact that there are only two political parties on Guam. If a rational third party emerged with just five viable candidates, legislative politics would be very different on Guam. With just two parties, our elected senators tend to not worry too much about elections. With three parties, they would all have to worry and for good reason. As information technologies continue to develop, voters become aware that they have more choices. Ideas and attitudes of leaders can no longer be hidden.
This year, one thing that is hidden is whether Sen. Adolpho Palacios hit a car and left the scene or not. If he hit the car, he should have just admitted it, explained himself, and moved on – no pun intended. By dragging out the facts, it becomes a cloud over his re-election. This is not something I have invented, this was news. As the legislative oversight chair of all law enforcement on Guam, this is a big deal. Before he was first elected, Sen. Palacios promised to donate all of his salary to charity. While that didn’t last very long, it was the spirit of his intentions that mattered. But bumping into a car using your own car, which is in effect a rolling campaign sign, and then driving off? It is either arrogant or rude. Or perhaps we need more information. Just a note to future politicians, if you are going to drive a rolling campaign sign around, know that people will know it is your car.
Between Oct. 12 and Oct. 15, my PA305 Data Analysis class conducted a survey of 160 voters using a practice ballot format. The following are the results. In this poll, there is a tie between the 15th and 16th places. I have shown real numbers to show how close the placements are. Most of the rank changes occur in the last five places at this point.
- Frank Blas Aguon Jr.: 145
- Thomas C. Ada: 135
- Tina Rose Muña-Barnes: 135
- Judith Won Pat: 134
- Dennis Rodriguez Jr.: 132
- Rory J. Respicio: 127
- Benjamin J.F. Cruz: 121
- Judith P. Guthertz: 120
- Vicente C. Pangelinan: 119
- V. Anthony Ada: 115
- Mike Limtiaco: 114
- Mana Silva Taijeron: 111
- Thomas A. Morrison: 108
- Adolpho Palacios Sr.: 100
- Christopher M. Duenas: 93
- Aline Yamashita: 93
- Michael F.Q. San Nicolas: 90
- Brant McCreadie: 87
- Joe S. San Agustin: 78
- Shirley Mabini: 78
- Adonis Joseph Mendiola: 67
- Roland Blas: 60
- Leah Beth O. Naholowaa: 52
- Javier M. Atalig Jr.: 38
- Gary W. Gumataotao: 37
- Michelle Hope Taitano: 37
- Benedicto Cruz Toves: 35
- Jose Santos Servino: 33
- Bill Sarmiento: 32
- Antonio Aflleje Aquiningoc: 30
Good luck to all candidates!
Comments
I noticed that after the primary judy senator was at 14th place.
A few days later she was among the top 5 of Dems.
When you poll folks do you poll:
Equal Dems & Repubs by register and by likely to vote ?
By gender ?
By age groups say U 30 and Over 30 ?
By income U $40k p.a. and Over $40k...
By adding a few extra questions the voters may get a better picture of Guam voters and their preferences ?..
Hasta
I noticed that the GOP has taken ads out attacking the Fab 4, leaving out V-S BJ Cruz. Why? BJ Cruz has used his legal expertise at every turn to block the military build-up and is the only incumbent senator to have openly stated that he is opposed to the build-up. Not even a "yes, but." If the Democrats hold the majority in the 32nd, and the V-S is returned to his post, you can be assured that these folks will revert to their usual form because they will say that they have been "vindicated" by the people. Something the Speaker, I presume, said to Senators Levin and Webb, in not so many words.
The only constant on Guam is that the same folks tend to get returned every election cycle while every new venture gets shot down, be it Prop A or the build-up or a new political status.
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