TODAY at noon at the Marriott Hotel, I will be giving a presentation on the 2012 primary election to the Tumon Bay Rotary Club. I give these types of talks several times a year and election presentations are among my favorite. In the talk I will give today, I will discuss the role of the primary 2012 election in the 2014 general elections, the races for delegate to Congress, the public auditor’s race and legislative strategy as part of the election process.

According to the classic 1930s definition by Harold Lasswell: “Politics is [about] who gets what when and how.” Under this definition, politics is actually everywhere in life. In any family there is politics. In any organization, there is politics. But on islands, political dimensions can be readily studied in ways that are unique and lasting.

On Guam, our voting numbers are fairly simple and direct. We have around 48,000 to 50,000 voters and a careful study of village voting trends can show fairly consistent and reliable tendencies. Primary elections usually have lower turnouts than general elections. There is also more variability or change among Republican candidates between the primary and general elections. Democrats tend to be more static, but for a number of reasons Republicans can rise and fall more quickly than Democrats.

Part of this change among the Republicans is a result of the lower aggregate numbers among republican-tendency voters. After the primary, the 15 Republican candidates become better known to the centrist and democrat-centered voters. This causes a number of easily identifiable changes to the levels of support certain Republicans receive. Part of this is also due to low voter turnouts in the off-year primary elections. In 2008, just 42 percent of voters showed up for the primary.

As I have noted before, vote switching is largely a talk driven, retail politics sort of behavior. The more people positively talk about a given candidate, the more the votes they receive. I know this sounds simple, but on an island, people tend to talk a lot. As the general election date approaches, people will change their minds quite a bit. Up to 20 percent of voters can change their minds in the one to two days before any given election depending on turnout, election dynamics and timing.

In 2012, the general election will fall on Nov. 6, a full week after Halloween and All Souls' Day. In 2014, the general election will fall on Nov. 4. This is a critical timing weekend for this election. Halloween will fall on a Friday, All Souls' Day will fall on the next Monday, and the election will take place the next day. This is four full days of non-stop talking and family events before the election. The holiday-election day cycle is critical to major elections and quite a number of things can happen in a very short period of time.

Charles Darwin developed his theories of evolution by comparing island wildlife. Various islands allowed for ready comparison of changes and adaptations. Islands provide some interesting perspectives on politics for a number of reasons. On islands, we think we know everyone. This cardinal assumption drives a lot of political behavior.

Politics is everywhere and on islands we can more readily see politics in action. The problem, of course, is that we can’t see everything. This creates a number of critical gaps in how we perceive political actions. In the end, though, politics needs to be more than about elections and ideas. Our leaders have to act with a sense of vision and long-term planning. Unfortunately, this longer view is hampered by our desire to want things right away.