THE Democrats may remain as the majority in the 32nd Guam Legislature, according to the results of a couple of polls conducted by University of Guam students recently.
Two of UOG professor Ron McNinch’s classes – PA510: Administrative Thoughts; and PA233: Impact of Government Regulatory Administration on Business – conducted two independent polls over a period of four days to measure responses on who residents think would be elected or re-elected to the Legislature. Each class used different methods: the first was done through a phone poll, the second through a convenience sample conducted on voters known to the students.
In the first poll, a total of 202 registered voters were contacted via phone between Sept. 15 and 17. Each person was asked to answer “yes, no, or no opinion” when asked which of the candidates given to them would be elected or re-elected. The survey had a sample error of about +/-4 percent on an adjusted scale and +/-7 percent on a normal scale.
According to the results, the top five candidates were all Democrats: Frank Aguon Jr. led with 149 votes; followed by Dennis Rodriguez Jr., 145; Tom Ada, 143; Tina Muña-Barnes, 141; and Judi Won Pat, 137.
Second poll
For the second poll, McNinch said a convenience sample of 328 registered voters was surveyed on Sept. 17 and 18 to measure weekend discussions.
Of the 328 people interviewed, the top five again were all Democrats: Won Pat leading with 247 votes; followed by Rodriguez with 234; Aguon, 231; Ada, 222; and Muña-Barnes, 218.
When combined, the polls show Aguon at the top, followed by Rodriguez in second; Won Pat in third, Ada in fourth, and Muña-Barnes in fifth.
Both surveys also revealed Chris Duenas and Sam Mabini (both incumbent senators) will be out, and new candidates Thomas Morrison and Michael Limtiaco will be coming in.
McNinch wants to stress, however, that the polls do not predict the outcomes.
“This is simply a snapshot seven weeks before the elections. A lot can change in seven weeks,” he said.
The general election is on Tuesday, Nov. 6.
