INCUMBENT Delegate Madeleine Bordallo is leading in the latest poll conducted by students of University of Guam professor Ron McNinch’s PA305 Data Analysis course.
McNinch revealed the poll results during a presentation before Rotary Club of Tumon Bay members yesterday.
A total of 276 people were contacted and asked just one question – “Who will be elected delegate to Congress?”
The results showed Bordallo at 51 percent (140); Democrat candidate Karlo Dizon, 23 percent (63); Republican candidate Sen. Frank Blas Jr. at 23 percent (64); and Independent candidate Jonathan Diaz at 1 percent (2). At least 3 percent of those polled, or 7 people, did not provide valid data.
McNinch said technically Bordallo is in more of a three-way race and not a four-way race.
“She’s doing very well but the key thing I always tell people is this is just a poll and on election day it could be something entirely different. Things could shift,” he said.
He noted that recent attacks made against Bordallo by Diaz may not have helped the incumbent a lot, but “what it did do was it killed him (Diaz).”
“They actually ate his campaign alive,” McNinch said, adding that Diaz went from a high of 18 when he first declared, then dropped drastically after his very public criticism. “It’s just ironic that his personal attack that was directed toward her appeared to have hurt him the most.”
When asked why the delegate race was polled and not the other candidates for the 32nd Guam Legislature or the Office of the Public Auditor, McNinch said that’s the only race that really has a pollable question to it.
“There’s really no race right now for the Legislature. There’s not a lot we can poll on. Even in the Public Auditor race, there’s no real race right now.”
McNinch also touched on the 2012 elections in general and what can be expected to happen in the next few years in future elections. He discussed campaign techniques candidates use to increase their chances of winning. At the top of the list is media at 27 percent; followed by friends/familial ties at 21 percent; public appearances at 15 percent; public discussions/party interests, 14 percent; scheduled village appearances, 13 percent; history/reputation, 5 percent; innovations/new ideas, 3 percent; and morals/beliefs, 3 percent.